How far will bitcoin crash


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Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website. Such institutional investment is widely thought to have prompted Bitcoin's current bull run , and it's viewed as proof that the coin, which now has a market capitalization of over a trillion dollars , is here to stay.


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As it turns out, a lot. In , two Yale University economists Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski published a report titled 'Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency,' in which the authors examined the risk of Bitcoin collapsing to zero in the span of a day.

Will Bitcoin Crash? Not Below $48K, Blockchain Data Suggests

For comparison, Tsyvinski stated that the euro EUR has a 0. Others argue that Bitcoin will eventually crash to zero because it lacks intrinsic value. But supporters retort that Bitcoin is backed by consumer confidence and mathematics. Even though Bitcoin is often framed in opposition to government currencies, both Bitcoin and "fiat" currencies like the US dollar USD and Pound sterling GBP , which were once backed by gold which has intrinsic value , are now backed by no physical commodity. Of course, some would argue that the US dollar, at least, is backed by debt.


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One of the most recent examples of this can be seen in a post by iOS developer Gaurav Sharma, which argues that Bitcoin is actually a modified Ponzi scheme. He argues that far from being decentralized, the development of Bitcoin is actually controlled by a central committee of developers, which he claims only benefits the powerful. This overlooks the fact that anybody competent can submit a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP for consideration, and the entire protocol can be forked with relative ease if undesirable changes are made.

With Bitcoin, all nodes and miners are free to choose which client they run—the client with the most combined work automatically becomes the canonical chain. As a result, the Bitcoin unit on these chains will almost certainly still have value, due to the computational work and resources involved in maintaining the integrity of the network.

Will Bitcoin Crash? Not Below $48K, Blockchain Data Suggests

Another common argument made by Sharma—and numerous other skeptics, including Warren Buffet and Mark Cuban —is that Bitcoin is simply overvalued because it has little or no utility. A similar phenomenon is described by Metcalfe's law , which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users. If Bitcoin were to truly crash to zero, it would mean either that it became impossible to trade Bitcoin or exchange it for goods and services, or that buy-side liquidity fell to zero for some reason.

One of the only plausible scenarios that could cause this is Bitcoin being banned by all world governments, potentially rendering it illegal to own or use—as is already the case in a handful of countries. This would also require taking down the entire Bitcoin network, rendering all nodes offline—including the ones in space —and making it impossible to set up new ones.

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Theoretically, this would make it impossible to transfer Bitcoin and would prevent underground trading, likely rendering Bitcoin worthless—but this would be nearly impossible to accomplish.